China Modernization Report 2008

——A study on the International modernization

Overview

International Interaction Affects Success and

Peaceful Development Benefit Globe

Overview of the China Modernization Report 2008: International Modernization

The United Nations had accepted 192 member states up to now. Generally, the survival and development of a country are limited by two kinds of environments: one is the natural environment, and the other is the international environment. If we regard the interaction and mutually beneficial coupling between national modernization and natural environment as ecological modernization, then the interaction between national modernization and the international environment can be called “international modernization” in short. If a nation’s own efforts are considered to be the internal cause, the international environment must be the external cause for a nation’s modernization. According to the genetics, the phenotype is determined jointly by the genotype and the living environment. The interaction between the internal and external causes determines the natures and features of things. As we know, only under appropriate conditions can an egg turn into a chick. Similarly, the result of national modernization will be determined by a nation’s own efforts and the international environment. International modernization study is aimed at showing the features and principle of the interaction between national modernization and the international environment, so as to offer a theoretical basis and international reference for the establishment of international strategies for national modernization.

In 2001, China was officially accepted into WTO to take part in globalization in an all-round way. As China holds a population taking up 20% of the world’s, China’s modernization will surely have significant impact on world modernization and the international environment. With the advancement of China’s modernization and internationalization, the influence of world modernization and the international environment on China is increasing day by day. How to establish and implement the international strategies of China’s modernization concerns the outcome of China’s modernization, as well as the rise and fall of Chinese nation. This report analyzes China’s international strategies from the aspect of international modernization, making it an academic attempt to supplement the analysis over China’s international strategies from the aspect of international relations. 

I. Historical facts of international modernization

International modernization is an important aspect of modernization, an interaction between national modernization and the international environment, and the international interaction in the course of modernization. This report makes time-series analysis, cross-sectional analysis and national cases analysis over the 300-year historical course (from 1700 to 2005), covering 5 fields (politics, economy, society, culture and ecology) and 4 aspects (international interaction, international structure, international institutions and international concepts), and probing into the long-term trend, evolutional route and historical experience. Time-series analysis lies on two levels (the international system and the nation), and there’re 15 samples of nations (8 developed nations and 7 developing ones). The cross-sectional analysis includes 2 dimensions (based on the national level and the national power) and 8 cross sections. The cross-sectional analysis in 2001 involves 131 nations and 80 variables, and other nation samples in this analysis are those with data in that year. This report summarizes 42 basic facts and 10 pieces of historical experience.

1. 42 basic facts of international modernization

International modernization can be understood from 6 aspects, each with 7 facts.

(1) The facts of international interaction in the political field. Since the 18^th century, the numbers of modern nations and inter-governmental international organizations have been increasing, and in late 20^th century, the number of diplomatic relations and international mutual dependence was rising. Since the 18^th century, the frequency of international wars hasn’t fallen, but there’re great differences between countries; the distribution of international wars and the structure of participating nations were both changing; during the 20^th century, Russia and the US took part in the largest amount of wars; in late 20^th century, international weapon trading began to fluctuate. During the last 40 years in the 20^th century, the total amount of foreign aids and per-capita international aids received by developing countries was soaring, while the foreign aids as a percentage of GNI in the aid-provided countries and the foreign aids as a percentage of GNI in the aid-received countries were both declining.

(2) The facts of international interaction in the economy field. Since the 18^th century, the international trades as a percentage of GDP has been rising, and the trading structure has been changing; the international investment as a percentage of GDP is also ascending, with great disparity between countries. Since the 19^th century, the international debt has been piling up, posing serious debt problem to developing countries. In the 20^th century, the number of transnational companies was rising, while the average tariff was declining, so there’s no significant relationship between the proportion of the international trades to GDP and the national level and power, but there’s a positive correlation between the proportion that international trades take up in GDP and the national influence and competitive power. In international investment, developing countries cover about 80%, while others about 20%.

(3) The facts of international interaction in the society field. Since the 18^th century, the total of international migrants was rising, and the annual migration rate was unstable; during the 20^th century, the flow direction of international migrants changed, and developed countries became pure immigration countries. In late 20^th century, the foreigners in developed countries were increasing, and the proportion of foreign university students in developed countries was also rising. In the 20^th century, the scale of international tourism was expanding continuously. Since the 18^th century, the number of international organizations has been rising, and now the amount of NGO is about 10 times that of IGO.

(4) The facts of international interaction in the culture field. In late 20^th century, international information and culture trades were developing rapidly, the export of hi-tech was growing fast, and the growth of technological trading went on faster than economic growth; the proportion that technology trading in developed countries takes up in the world exceeds 90%, and technology trading in low-income countries takes up less than 1%. In the 20^th century, international sports exchange develops rapidly, and international technology exchange and international conferences rapidly grew.

(5) The facts of international system change. Since the 18^th century, the structure of national level in the international system has been comparatively stable, including 12 to 17 economically developed countries; the structure of national power in the international system has been relatively stable, including 4 to 10 economic powers; in international conflicts, traditional agricultural civilization is unable to resist industrial civilization. In the 20^th century, the world ranking of nations greatly changed, and the change rate exceeded 90% within 45 years; the international positions of developed countries and world powers were relatively stable, and the probability of unchanged positions within 45 years generally outran 80%; the international positions of least developed countries and the most powerless countries in the world were relatively stable, and the probability of their unchanged positions reached over 75%; the probability of the international position change of medium level and primary level countries were high.

(6) Other facts of international modernization. Since the 18^th century, geographical positions and national quality have exerted importance influence on international interactions, and the international institutions and concepts have been evolving endlessly. Since the 20^th century, international ecological cooperation and technological cooperation have been growing, international competition has evolved from strength competition into development competition, regional economic integration has made great achievements, and national influence and competitiveness power has been incessantly changing. In late 20^th century, as to the relationship between international interaction variables and economic levels and scales, there was 70% consistency and 30% disparity.

In the past 300 years, national economic levels (GDP per-capita) and economic powers (economic power indexes) changed greatly. In the 18^th Century, the US, Canada and Ireland progressed into economically developed countries; England, Germany and Russia were promoted to economic powers, and Spain descended to medium-level economic power. In the 19^th Century, Australia, New Zealand and Argentina evolved into economically developed countries; Spain, Portugal, Italy and Norway descended to medium-level economic powers; the US was promoted into an economic power, and China, India, Russia and Italy descended to medium-level economic power. Last century, Japan, Singapore, Finland and Norway progressed into economically developed countries; Argentina, Australia and New Zealand degraded to medium-level economic powers; Japan, Canada and Italy became economic powers. However, such an analysis doesn’t take into account the differences between nations in their agricultural and industrial civilizations.

2. Historical experiences for international modernization

The 300-year progress of international modernization not only ensures a large number of facts, but also embodies rich historical experience.

Firstly, it’s wrong to do anything on blindly for international modernization. The structure of the international system is relatively stable. Without sufficient material foundations and appropriated international environments, the unilateral efforts in changing the international structure and world orders can hardly make a good winning. Although Power Transition Theory was widely criticized, the cycle of hegemony is closely related to the stability of the international system.

Secondly, no one can make a great achievement in short time in the process of the international modernization. The international positions of nations can certainly be changed, but the probability of their short-term and medium-term changes is quite small. For instance, there were USA, Canada and Ireland in the 18^th Century, Australia, New Zealand and Argentina in the 19^th Century, and Norway, Finland, Japan and Singapore in the last century, these countries had progressed from non-economically-developed countries into economically developed countries (classified based on per-capita GDP).

Thirdly, the function of the international modernization can’t be overstated. The results of the national modernization must be determined by the nation’s efforts and its international environment. International modernization could not determine the rise or fall of a nation, but it does have influence on it so that it may accelerate the difference between nations. Anyway, we can’t overstate the impact of international modernization. International dependency is just a temporary strategy but not a long-term one.

Fourthly, internal causes can’t be ignored during international modernization.  For most of the time, internal factors serve as the major causes to the failure of international modernization in developing countries. These internal factors to the failure include the geographical conditions, social systems, cultural concepts and human actions. During international interactions, some people may sell their countries, the public benefits, or their compatriots for profits. Although they’re in small amounts, they pose great harms.

Fifthly, it’s a pitfall to do something by unilateral image for international modernization. The international interactions for international modernization should be a bilateral action, but not the wish of only one party. In this course, unilateral pursuit of international cooperation and exchanges may cost much but achieve none. In accordance with the principle of profit interaction, the profit is a determinant in international interaction. The international interaction based on mutual benefits can be lasting and reliable interactions.

Sixthly, for international modernization, we should not put the cart before the horse. National modernization is the final destination, while international modernization is just a measure. International modernization is a path to enhancing national level, but not the objective. We can’t make international modernization the objective, neither can we make internationalization index. Internationalization is just an analysis indicator and index for reference. We can’t blindly pursuit internationalization or globalization, and internationalization and globalization must serve the strategic needs of national modernization and national profits.

Seventhly, we can never pursuit perfect for international modernization. Most of the time, international modernization is an international game with incomplete information, incomparable positions and fast-changing environment for all parties. Such a game can be zero-sum or non-zero-sum. Sometimes, a seemingly ideal international interaction may be an international trap. International misguidance and frauds take place from time to time. International interaction doesn’t have the best mode, but only supports rational choices.

Eighthly, being backward means being suppressed, and agricultural civilization can hardly resist industrial civilization.  Lagging small countries can barely draw people’s attention; while lagging large are always gradually partitioned by other countries. A less developed economic power doesn’t play a major role in the world stage, but sometimes turns into the object to be captured by advanced countries. In the 18^th and 19^th centuries, the advanced countries divided between them the political benefits, including the land and rights. In the 20^th century, they began to share economic profits, including resources and markets. Now in the new century, strategic profit will become the next target, including concepts and knowledge. In the information age, advanced countries can become the head countries while lagging countries may become the body ones. Agricultural civilization is unable to compete with industrial civilization, while the latter is unable compete with information civilization.

Ninthly, we should hold a rational attitude toward international trading and investment. The proportion of international trading and investment to GDP should not be limitlessly high. According to statistics in 2004, the proportion of international trading to GDP was not significantly related to GNP per-capita; the FDI inward stocks as a percentage of GDP was not significantly related to GNP per-capita; and the FDI outward stocks as a percentage of GDP was significant positive correlation to GNP per-capita. The FDI stocks as a percentage of GDP showed significant positive correlation to GNP per-capita. According to the proportion that international trading and investment take up in GDP, we can divide the nations into three types. Type 1 is high-trading and high-investment nations (with a proportion of trading and investment higher than 80%). Type 2 is medium-trading and medium-investment countries (with a proportion of trading and investment higher than 60% and lower than 80%). Type 3 is low-trading and low-investment countries (with a proportion of trading and investment generally lower than 40%). The distribution of international trading and investment among different countries is unbalanced, the trading and investment pattern and a nation’s development level is not simply a linear relation.

Tenthly, we should be highly alert to international wars. According to statistical analysis of international wars, if the scale differences of wars are not counted in, the frequency of international wars in the past two centuries didn’t fall. Some scholars believed that the international competition in the 21^st Century will be fierce, and the scrambling for strategic resources, space resources and internet space may rise, enhancing the risk of international wars. Therefore, those peace-loving countries should get fully prepared. On the one hand, they should persistently promote peaceful development; on the other, they should be highly alert to more international wars and prepare to handle them.

In the past 3 centuries, some nations were successful, while some others were not so successful. The fall or rise of these nations was determined by the internal and external factors together. The experience of different nations in international modernization is worth noticing. England, the US, Germany, Japan and Latin America at least share the following four facts.

First, you do need to seize the international opportunities. UK, USA, Germany and Japan were all good at this. In the 18^th and 19^th centuries, England seized the historical opportunity of the Industrial Revolution and became a world superpower. During the 19^th century, Germany captured the opportunity of the second Industrial Revolution and became the European Power; then in the 20^th century, it took advantage of both the two revolutions and turned to a developed country. In the 19^th century, Japan made use of the expanded opportunity of the second Industrial Revolution and fulfilled economic take-off; then in the last century, it captured the third Industrial Revolution and the Cold War to achieve revival after war, and became an economic power and a developed country. During the 20^th century, South Korea seized the opportunities of the Cold War and the two Industrial Revolutions, gradually reaching the level of developed countries. In the 20^th century, Finland and Ireland seized the opportunity of the fourth Industrial Revolution, and became a developed country with leading competitiveness in the world.

Second, it’s helpful to cooperate with developed countries. Developed countries cooperate with each other, and developing countries collaborated with developed ones, they can elevate their own levels. Countries of this type include Japan, South Korea and Singapore. Among them, Japan must have taught the best lesson to the world. Japan and China almost had the same reason and schedule for starting modernization: both were started around 1860s, after forced to open up by western powers; however, they chose different paths and brought about distinct results. Japan actively promoted all-round modernization, system modernization and industrial modernization simultaneously, and stressed to learn western systems, cultures and technologies. China promoted westernization movement and adopted industrial modernization mode to learn about modern technologies and military devices in the west, but didn’t pay enough attention to system modernization. After 30 years, Japan seized the expanded opportunity of industrial revolution and became an industrial power in the east. After losing the opportunity of industrial revolution, China fell into a semi-feudal and semi-colonial country.  In the last five decades of the 20^th century, Japan, South Korea and Singapore cooperated with developed countries. With fast advancing technological and economic levels, they successively approached or reached the level of developed countries.

Third, technology and education is very important for the successes.  The USA, Germany and Japan are all the countries which conduct the advanced development of education.  Their comparatively advanced national education and higher education greatly enhanced the national quality.  And a high national quality is the key to the pursuit of modernization.  UK, USA, Germany and Japan all pay great attention to the function of science and technology. Although they feature distinct technological systems, like the fundamental research system in England, the knowledge and technology innovation system in USA and Germany; and the technology innovation system in Japan; however, in ensuring the success of different countries and maintaining their world-leading positions, the technology functions with minor differences in these countries.

Fourthly, so many things are determined by the combining of internal and external causes.  The successes of UK, USA, Germany and Japan were determined by these two parts together.  The external causes refer to historical opportunities and preferential changes in the international environment.  The internal causes mean rational policies and measures to promote modernization.  Modernization in Latin America started quite early, but there was no case of complete success.  Judging from the Dependency Theory, the underdeveloped state of Latin America is a necessary outcome of the western capitalism.  There’s something reasonable about this point, but it’s not reliable to owe such a state totally to external causes.  The political corruption and turbulence, the gap between the rich and the poor and social separation, and focus on economy but neglect of the society can be widely found in Latin America, which may be the reason to their underdevelopment also in some content.

II. Basic Principles of International Modernization

Since there’re countries, there’re international relations.  Since there’s modernization, there’re international interactions in the course of modernization.  As a matter of fact, modernization embodies the overall transformation of international relations (Morse 1976). Although the internal and external affairs of a country are correlated, international affairs show a unique nature.  Generally, study about international affairs and relations reside in the scope of international politics.  There can be, and must be special study about the interaction between national modernization and the international environment and world modernization.  We call such an interaction the international modernization.  Systematic statements of the facts, characteristics and laws about international modernization form the theory of international modernization.  Although classical modernization study included a large number of international comparisons, and regarded international integration as the extension of modernization beyond national boundaries (Black, 1976), its point lies in the social changes within a country, without systematic study of the function of international factors on national modernization, thus neglecting the impact of the international environment.  International modernization theory is aimed at explaining the interaction and impacts between internal and external causes to national modernization.

1. Theories Related to International Modernization

The interaction between national modernization and international environment can be studied from different aspects and layers.  If the study is carried out from the aspect of national levels, we can analyze the relations among national levels, international interactions and the level structure of the international system; dependency theory and world system theory basically fall into this perspective of study.  If the study is carried out from the aspect of national power we can analyze the relations among national power, international interactions and the power structure of the international system; international relations and international political theory mainly adopts such a perspective.  These two studies can be mutual complementary.  The theory of globalization is a theoretical analysis of the phenomenon of globalization, concerning the interactions between countries in modernization.  The dependency theory, world system theory, international relations theory and globalization theory are all related to international modernization.

Dependency theory is an international political and economic theory emerging in 1960s.  It was intended to apply the dependency between core countries and peripheral countries to explain the underdevelopment in peripheral countries, and it attributed such an underdevelopment to external reasons.  According to the dependency theory, the economic nature and conflicts of capitalism forced this system to extend to underdeveloped periphery in the world economy; due to the insufficient consumption and reduced return in the home country, capitalist countries would certainly control and exploit underdeveloped countries, which led to the hierarchical ruling structure between the industrial center and the dependent periphery. There’s no systematic theoretical structure for dependency theory.

The world system theory is a widely influential theory emerging during 1970s.  It attempted to analyze the historical evolution of the world system with variables like dependency between the core and the periphery, the world labor division and class conflicts, and then explain the world development history since the 16^th century.  According to this theory, the world system bears a unitary world economic foundation; division of labor divided the world into three zones: the central zone, semi-peripheral zone and the peripheral zone; the global expansion of capitalism gradually integrated the peripheral zone into the world economic system and made it marginalized; national economic positions keep changing, and the geographical distribution of national economic positions is also altering.

The study of international relations is not only a branch of politics, but also a relatively independent trans-disciplinary subject, concerning politics, economics, history, sociology, and many others.  The main body of international relations theory is the international political theory based on national power.  The major schools during the evolution of international politics include: 1) Realism, Neo-Realism and Neo-classical Realism; 2) Rationalism, classical liberalism, idealism, and neo-liberal institutionalism; 3) Marxism, imperialism, dependency theory, world system theory and neo-radicalism; 4) Scientific activism; 5) Critical theory and constructivism; 6) Influence of geographical environment. Since 1970s, some new ideas emerged in the study of international relations, like post-activism, post-structuralism, post-modernism, neo-functionalism, environmentalism, mutual dependence, new security theory, soft power theory, civilization conflict theory, democratic peace theory, neo-empire theory and the theory of hegemonic stability etc.

Generally, globalization is a historical process when international relations and mutual dependency develops day by day. The globalization theory is an aggregation of theoretical explanations about the phenomenon of globalization. Globalization in narrow sense refers to the expansion of global relations and mutual dependency of economic activities; while in broad sense, it means a complicated international process took place in fields like economy, politics, culture, society and environment.  When internationalization comes to a certain degree, for example, when over 50% countries get involved in internationalization, the authentic globalization becomes true.

International interactions for international modernization take place in all fields and layers of human activities.  There’re many theories and explanations in different layers and fields, including the game theory, international trade theory, theory of international labor division, life cycle theory, technology diffusion theory, competitive power theory and regional integration theory.  There’s also a lot of work about the quantitative study of international modernization, like evaluation of national levels and power, statistical analysis of international wars, international competitive power and globalization evaluation etc.

2. General Theory of International Modernization

The general theory of international modernization was proposed by Chinese scholar Prof. He Chuanqi. This theory, based on the analysis of the 300-year progress of international modernization and systematic theory summarization, is an alternative theoretical explanation about the interaction between national modernization and international environment from the 18^th to the 21^st century. It basically consists of five aspects: the definition, process, result, driving force and mode of international modernization, as well as the basic features, laws and models of these five aspects.

(1) Definitions of international modernization.

 International modernization is an interaction between national modernization and international environment, an international interaction during the course of modernization. International modernization is a complicated process, as well as a multinational activity that happens at all levels and in all fields. It involves 3 aspects: national modernization, international environment (world modernization) and the international interaction.

International environment: The total of external factors to national modernization, including world modernization, international system and the trend, law, structure, system and ideas of international interaction. There’re many ways to classify the international environment, such as the integrated environment (world environment, regional environment and surrounding environment) and the field environment (economic, social, political, cultural and ecological environments).

International interaction: the interaction between a country and its international environment, concerning two or more countries. International interaction can be classified in many ways, like interaction at different levels, interaction in different fields, hostile interaction, neutral interaction and friendly interaction and so on.

International position: The position of a country universally recognized in the international system can be defined according to relative levels and powers.

National differentiation: international labor division, international market division and the polarization of international position.

National stratification: The levels, layers and their changes of countries in the stratification structure of the international system.

National mobility: a country’s position change in the international system, including the changes of grades and rankings.

Four grades of national levels: developed countries, moderately developed countries, preliminarily developed countries and under developed countries.

Four grades of national powers: world class powers, medium powers, primary powers and weak countries.

Four grades of national scale: world large countries, medium-sized countries, small countries and mini countries.

Four quadrants of international position: The first quadrant (high-level and powerful), the second quadrant (high-level and weak), the third quadrant (low-level and powerful); the fourth quadrant (low-level and weak).  The representative of the first quadrant is the US; that of the second quadrant is Luxemburg; that of the third is India; that of the fourth is Burundi.  Each of these quadrants can be sub-divided into 4 other quadrants, so the international position includes 4 quadrants and 16 sub-quadrants.

(2) Process of international modernization.

 The course of international modernization can be divided into two stages: international modernization at the Industrial Age and the international modernization at the Information/knowledge Age, and each stage boasts unique contents and characteristics.  Generally, international modernization should follow 4 fundamentals and 8 basic principles, and shows 12 major features.

The principle of joint action: the performance of national modernization should be determined together by national modernization and the international environment; the international interaction can not determine a countries fall or rise, but it does affect it or accelerate a country’s polarization.

The principle of profit interaction: the profit is a determinant in international interaction. National consciousness, international ideas, international institutions and international structure are the factors that impact international interaction. Profit maximization and loss minimization are the basic principles of international interaction.

The principle of route selection: the interaction between national modernization and international environment is similar to the intraspecific interaction among different individuals, ensuring selectivity and flexibility of the routes.

The principle of quadrant interaction: the international interaction for national modernization is closely related to a country’s international position; the interaction between countries in the same position quadrant is generally horizontal, while that between countries in different position quadrants is often vertical.

8 rules for international modernization: the rule of action force and reaction force, the rule of different effects, the rule of  “the same and the coming”, the rule of “close to red and show more red”, the rule of goal orientation, the rule of national profit, the rule of maximization and minimization, and the rule of bounded rationality.

12 features of international modernization: universality, diversity, periodicality, complexity, evolution, indecisiveness, national difference, national level effect, national power effect, persistent international wars, strengthening international cooperation and industrial civilization effect. The international modernization at the industrial age and the information age showed different features.

(3) Outcomes of international modernization.

 There’re three direct outcomes of international modernization:  firstly, the change of national modernization, including changes of national level, national position and national ideas;  secondly, the change of international environment, including changes in international structure, international system and international ideas; and  thirdly, the change of international interaction, including changes in the course, features, nature and scale of international interaction.

 There’re three national goals for international modernization: enhancing national levels and international positions, improving the ability of international interaction, and creating a benign international environment.

(4) Driving forces of international modernization.

 International modernization is a joint effect of many factors, including humanity, profit, competition and scientific technology. For the international modernization at the industrial age, power competition and survival competition are the engines of international interaction; while for the international modernization at the information/knowledge age, cooperation competition and development competition are the driving forces for international interaction.

The competition during the Industrial Age is a competition of national strength; it was the energy source of international interaction to protect the survival of a country and struggle for a global hegemony.

The competition at the information/knowledge age is a competition of national level. It was the energy source of international interaction to maintain a world leading position or to catch up with the world advanced level.

(5) Modes of international modernization.

 International modernization features diversity of modes, and dependency of routes and starting points, under the influence of factors like the history, geography, level, strength, international structure, international institutions and international ideas.

 As for specific countries, the paths and modes for international interaction are related to the two parties of interaction, stakeholders and the international system.

Generally, international modernization can be achieved through four paths (international cooperation, international exchange, international competition and international conflict) and four modes (integrated interaction, horizontal interaction, downward interaction and upward interaction). And downward interaction and upward interaction can be called vertical interaction.

The strategies of international modernization fall into 2 categories and 4 sub-categories. The strategies in 2 categories are: the international interaction between countries in the same international position quadrant, generally equal and symmetrical horizontal interaction; the international interaction between countries in different international position quadrants, often unequal and unsymmetrical vertical interaction.

The strategies in 4 sub-categories mean: the international interaction between countries in the same international position quadrant is generally horizontal interaction; the interaction between higher-position countries and lower-position countries is generally downward interaction; the interaction between lower-position countries and higher-position countries is often upward interaction; if the international positions of two countries are partly similar and partly different, there can be horizontal and vertical interactions at the same time, called integrated interaction in short.

III. Strategic Study for China’s International Modernization

The modernization and international modernization in China both started in middle 19^th century. China was a world economic power in early 19^th century, but degraded into a semi-feudal and semi-colonial country in late that century.  If we say the challenge that China faced in the 20^th century was saving the nation and striving for survival, the challenge for it in the 21^st century must be development and revival.  If we say the international strategy in the 20^th century was the strategy of survival, the international strategy in the 21^st century must be the development strategy.  In the 21^st century, China’s modernization is a project ranging the whole century.  The strategic analysis of China’s international modernization requires regular operation.  This report adopts an 8-factor model with basic principles, international environment, objective conditions, strategic goals, strategic rules, strategic structure, strategic points and strategic measures to make strategic analysis, and advances the idea of Peace Dove Strategy (PDS) for China’s international modernization in the 21^st century.

About China’s international strategies in the 21^st century, scholars engaged in study of diplomatic policies, international relations and international politics have carried out much work. This report analyzes China’s international strategies from the perspective of international modernization, supplementing the work of the previous scholars. The contents herein are just academic exploration but not empirical analysis, and the academic ideas only represent the current knowledge of the research group.

1. History and Current Situation of China’s International Modernization

China’s international modernization is the interaction between China’s modernization and China’s international environment.  The history of China’s international modernization can be traced back to the startup of China’s modernization. If the first Opium War (1840) is included, by now, China’s international modernization can be roughly divided into 3 stages: late Tsing Dynasty, the Republic of China and the New China.

As a matter of fact, China’s international modernization was started by international wars. The first Opium War in 1840 didn’t wake up this ancient agricultural country with thousands of years’ history.  Before the emerging industrial civilization, Tsing Dynasty, with a population of nearly 400 million, was defeated by the English army which had only about 4000 soldiers.  It was just the international war that showed the power of the emerging industrial civilization.  Some intellectuals began to have their eyes open to the world and study the conditions in other countries; they advanced the idea of learning from the west to strengthen our own nation and outrun them, thus drawing open China’s modernization and international modernization.  Regretfully, rulers of the Tsing Dynasty didn’t realize the change of the world but kept fascinated by their illusion of having the most powerful country under the sun.  In the following over one century, due to the unsymmetrical international military conflicts, our great country witnessed few winnings yet lots of failures, and had to release much of our money to the winning countries, which was a great humiliation and ravage for our nation. China during the time of Republic of China continued to be invaded by foreign powers.  Only after the establishment of the New China (People’s Republic of China) did China start its independent and self-support development.

To a great extent, the startup of China’s modernization was a reaction to external pressure and challenge.  In early 19^th century, the industrial modernization in the world outside was still new for old China, and people had disputes about how to handle external challenges.  The international strategy in late Tsing Dynasty can be roughly described in three words: delay, bear and sell.  After defeated in the First Opium War, the rulers took the delaying tactics in handling international affairs, imagining the invaders would be tired out in the end.  After beaten in the Second Opium War, they posed self-bore and initiated westernization movements, attempting to strengthen the country and army with western techniques.  After the failure of the first Sino-Japanese War, they adopted the strategy of suppressing one foreign country through another country, sold the country for profits and maintain their feudal ruling.  The outstanding feature of the international relations during the Tsing Dynasty was inequality.

The international strategies during the Republic of China mainly consisted of 3 aspects. First, to strive for the political recognition of the Republic of China from the international society. Second, to promote “treaty-amending diplomacy”, abolish unequal treaties, and retrieve national rights partly.  Third, to try for international aids and take part in the World Anti-Fascism Alliance to resist Japanese invaders.  After the victory of the Second World War, China became the initiator of the UN.

The international strategies of New China have been around independent foreign policy of peace, based on the five principles: mutual respect for territorial integrity and sovereignty, mutual non-aggression, non-interference in each other’s internal affairs, equality and mutual benefit, and peaceful coexistence. It took part in international exchange and cooperation, gradually won international respect, and had their international position gradually elevated.

Currently, China continues to stick to the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence and the independent foreign policy of peace; centered at economic building and promoting peaceful diplomacy, China now endeavors to promote its peaceful reunification and the world harmony.  Around the three points of economic development, national reunification and promotion of world peace, China started international communications in an all-round way and developed its international relations in all levels and fields. The pattern of China’s international modernization has been basically formed.

China is among the 5 permanent members of the UN Security Council.  Till now, 168 countries have established diplomatic relationship with China. In 2004, China has become member of 6297 international organizations, including 234 intergovernmental international organizations; 17 Chinese served as the person in charge of international organizations, and Chinese directed 21 international organizations; the headquarters or secretariats of 55 international organizations were set up in China.

In 2004, the international position of China was generally like this: China’s integrated modernization level and human development level falls into the rank of preliminarily developed countries; its objective national power and influence lies in the rank of world class powers; its economic power lies in the rank of world medium powers; its objective competitive power falls into the line of preliminarily developed countries; its per-capita competitive power and internationalization degree resides in the line of underdeveloped countries.

2. Strategic Option of China’s international modernization

The strategies of China’s international modernization (or the international strategies of China’s modernization) are part of China’s modernization strategies.  The strategic goals of China’s modernization include: around 2050, China should achieve the level of moderately developed countries and basically fulfilled modernization; by the end of the 21^st century, it should reach the level of developed countries and fulfilled modernization in an all-round way.  Evidently, the strategies of China’s international modernization must serve the strategic goals of China’s modernization, comply with the basic situations of China’s modernization, properly handle the international environment of China’s modernization, and abide by the basic principles of international modernization.  People must have different ideas in selecting strategies for China’s international modernization, and different scholars can come to different thoughts by studying from different aspects; besides, international strategy should advance with the times.

Based on the knowledge of the 300-year experience and basic principles of international modernization, as well as the information about the history and current situation of China’s international modernization, we believe that the PDS (Peace Dove Strategy) for China’s international modernization can be made a strategic selection for China’s international modernization in the 21^st century.

 The PDS mainly includes strategic goals, principles, structure, supervision, key points and measures. Now we’ll introduce strategic conception before discussing the strategic points. The whole content is just academic probing for the reference.

(1) Conception of the PDS for China’s international modernization

First of all, the strategic goal and policy goal of the PDS

The strategic goal of China’s international modernization in the 21^st century is: promoting China’s international position and advancing to the line of developed countries; enhancing China’s international interaction ability, with key indexes coming to top in the world; improving our international environment to help with world peace and development.

The policy goal of China’s international modernization in the 21^st century is: by 2050, the national level should have advanced to the line of moderately developed countries; the objective national power, economic power and objective influence should have come to top in the world; the internationalization degree, objective competitiveness and per-capita competitiveness should reach world medium level, with harmonious international relations and a favorable international environment; by 2100, the national level should have been promoted to the rank of developed countries, the international interaction ability came to top in the world, and the international environment and relations were satisfying, so that Chinese people can go around the world without great difficulties.  China at that time will have our friends, goods and culture distributed around the globe.

Secondly, the strategic structure and major features of the PDS.

The basic framework of the PDS is: the front body of the “pigeon” is the Association of Asian Countries (Asian Association, to be established); east wing is the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC); west wing is the Asia-Europe Economic Cooperation (AEEC, upgrade of Asia-Europe Meeting); back body (in the south) includes South America, Oceania and Africa; UN serves as the head of the “pigeon”.

The Concept Framework of the Peace Dove Strategy (PDS)

The basic concept of the PDS is: to follow comply with the charter and promote peace; to be based in Asia yet open to the world; to balance the Western and Eastern on cooperation and collaborate with Southern; to be mutually beneficial and progressive.

To comply with the charter and promote peace—to abide by the Charter of the United Nations, and promote peace and progress.

To be based in Asia yet open to the world—to promote Asian cooperation among Asia Association (AA), and develop trans-regional economic cooperation in the whole world.

To balance the Western and Eastern on cooperation and collaborate with Southern—to exert the functions of APEC in the cooperation with east and AEEC in the cooperation with west, and reinforce cooperation with the Europe and USA comparably; to encourage the cooperation with Southern countries, including the Africa, Oceania Countries and South American Countries.

To be mutually beneficial and progressive—the countries involved in cooperation should coexist peacefully and co-development mutually.

The strategic structure of the PDS is: strategies at 5 levels and strategies in 5 fields. Strategies at 5 levels are: the level of international system, sub-international system, nation, region and individuals. Strategies in 5 fields include the politics, economy, society, culture and ecology.

The strategic features of the PDS are: to be based in Asia yet open to the world; to balance the west and east in cooperation and collaborate with South; to balance USA and the Europe in both political and economic cooperation; to be mutually beneficial and progressive; to exert the function of the UN and promote Asian civilizations.

The structural features of the PDS include: to be based on Asian cooperation, collaborate with APEC in the east and AEEC in the west comparably, and economic cooperation between China and Africa, Oceania and South America in the south; to form a strategic line through Europe, Asia and North America, three sections of Africa, Oceania, and South America, and three keys of China-Asia, China-America and China-EU.

Thirdly, dynamic monitoring and evaluation of PDS

The implementation of the PDS requires dynamic monitoring and evaluation, so it’s necessary to make adjustment to the strategies according to the results of monitoring and evaluation.  Generally, the monitoring and evaluation system consists of 4 types: monitoring and evaluation in international system, sub-international system, the national level and different fields. The monitoring index system may include the key indexes of the national goals of China’s international modernization and the key indexes of the international environment; the monitoring index system in different fields contains key indexes in different fields.

The monitoring and evaluation at the level of international system mainly includes the monitoring and evaluation of the world modernization, the international environment and the national goals of China’s international modernization.  The monitoring and evaluation of the world modernization contains the monitoring and evaluation of the level, structure and trend of world modernization. “China Modernization Report” would make evaluations in these aspects each year.  The monitoring and evaluation of international environment consists of the monitoring and evaluation of international relations, international structure, and international institutions and ideas, so it requires special studies.  The goal monitoring for China’s international modernization includes 16 indexes.

Fourthly, the key points and measures of PDS

According to the PDS, it can become the strategic points for China’s international modernization in the following 20 to 50 years to optimize the strategic layout of China’s international modernization, enhance China’s national ability in international modernization and improve China’s international environment for the modernization. At each point, we can further choose some more strategic points and measures.

To optimize the strategic layout of China’s international modernization

To optimize the strategic layout is a strategic point of the PDS.  The strategic layout in the new times can be adjusted step by step.  The layout adjustment will take place in the overall layout, at the level of international system, sub-international system, nation, region and individuals, and layout adjustments to five fields.

When adjusting the layout, 5 factors should be taken into account.  First, goal orientation,  the strategic layout should serve the strategic goals of the nation.  Second, to do things according to our extant abilities,  the strategic layout must be supported by objective conditions.  Third, to know ourselves as well as our opponents, t he strategic layout must take into consideration the change of the international environment.  Fourth, to respect the objective laws, the strategic layout should comply with the strategic principles of China.  Fifth, to accord with the logic,  the strategic layout should include the rationality of the strategic structure.

There’re 4 points in the layout adjustment:  firstly to construct and optimize the strategic platform for international interaction;  secondly to evaluate and select partners of international interaction, and identify and evaluate our strategic rivals;  thirdly to evaluate and rationally apply the strategic resources of international interaction; f ourthly to establish and implement cases for carrying out international interaction.

The strategic measures for layout adjustment include: rational evaluation of the current strategic structure, establishment of the PDS roadmap, and optimization of layout according to the PDS.  First, to actively take part in UN reform and fully exert its function.  Second, to promote the establishment of Association of Asian Countries, and promote the progress of Asian civilization.  Third, to encourage the Asia-Europe Meeting upgraded into Asia-Europe Economic Cooperation to ensure all-round cooperation between Asia and Europe, and promote the cooperation among china, Russia, Germany, Italy, France and UK.  Fourth, to exert the performance of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation to advance the exchange and cooperation among China, South Korea, Japan, Canada, USA and Mexico.  Fifth, to reinforce the South-South collaboration and promote the market cooperation between China and other developing countries.  Sixth, to strengthen China’s exchange and cooperation with developed countries, and apply for becoming part of OECD if conditions allow.

(3) To enhance China’s national ability for international modernization

It’s a long-term task for the PDS to enhance China’s national ability for international modernization.

Above all, to enhance China’s integrated international interaction ability.  First, to advance the material foundation for China’s international modernization, including the advancement of national levels and strengths, acceleration of technology and education modernization, intensification of the strategic resources for international interaction, and improvement of international interaction.  Second, to perfect the systematic foundations for China’s international interaction, including the perfection of international institutions at the level of country, department and locality.  Third, to further consolidate the talent foundation for China’s international modernization, including promoting the quality of the diplomatic team and train reserved talents for diplomacy; to cultivate special talents for international cooperation and enhance the professional quality of foreign affairs personnel; to train international special technicians and improve the professional transaction of international affairs; to continue to strengthen and perfect foreign language teaching and improve the international quality of the whole people.

Second, to promote the ability of international interaction at 5 levels and in 5 fields.  The ability of international interaction at 5 levels includes the ability at the level of international system, sub-international system, nation, locality and individuals.  The international interaction ability in 5 fields includes the ability in the fields of politics, economy, society, culture and ecology.

Third, there are three proposals to enhance the national ability for China’s international modernization.

The first proposal is to promote the establishment of Association of Asian Countries (Asian Association, AA) to promote regional cooperation in Asia.  Currently, the regional international cooperation in Europe, Africa and America consists of 3 levels: the trans-regional level, the regional level, and the sub-regional level.  At the regional level, there’s EU in the Europe, AU in the Africa, and OAS in the America. Only Asia doesn’t have a regional cooperation organization.  According to the international experience and suggestions from the governments and scholars of Asian countries, there’re three choices for the model of Asia’s regional cooperation: the mode of European Union, the mode of community, and the mode of association.  At the current stage, the loose mode of association is relatively feasible for Asia.

As an Asian country, China has its future closely related to that of Asia.  China can actively promote the establishment of the AA (Asian Association) and assume more responsibilities, for instance, to strive to take charge of setting up the secretariat for the Asian Association.  During the period of preparation, we may entrust Bo’ao Forum for Asia with the preparations for the AA and its secretariat.  The secretariat can be sited at Hainan Island of China.  China can offer all conditions and backups for diplomatic policies required for the preparation.  China may strive to accomplish the establishment of the AA and its secretariat in 2009.

The second proposal is to set up a free trade zone of Hainan Island to inspire the international cooperation between China and Asia.  If the secretariat of the AA (Asian Association) is sited at Hainan Island, we may consider building Hainan Island into a special ecological economic zone.

 The international policies at this special ecological economic zone may include: first, the policy of free trade, offering non-tariff policy for both import and export; second, policy of free investment, that is, environment-friendly enterprises from Asian countries that invest in Hainan Island can be exempt from business income taxes; third, the policy of free travels; that is to say, when citizens from Asian countries came to Hainan Island for traveling, they can have their visas issued locally on time; fourth, the policy of free shopping, or we may say, when citizens from Asian countries shopped in Hainan Island, they can be exempted from excise; fifth, the policy of free studying abroad, or, citizens from Asian countries can enjoy national treatment when studying at schools in Hainan Island.  The future of Hainan Island will become an “ecological free island” in Asia, an ideal club for the AA (Asian Association), and a marine pearl in Asia.

The third proposal is to encourage the Asia-Europe Meeting (AEM) upgraded into Asia-Europe Economic Cooperation (AEEC) to ensure all-round cooperation between Asia and Europe.  In 2008, the 7^th Asia-Europe Meeting will be held in Beijing.  China may suggest the scheme to upgrade the Asia-Europe Meeting, promote Asia-Europe Meeting to be upgraded to AEEC, and endeavor to take charge of the organization of secretariat for this cooperation.

The secretariat of APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) is placed in Singapore.  The secretariat of AEEC can be suggested to locate in HK.  China’s HK is a highly developed free port, which can surely handle routine jobs for a secretariat.  The preparations for a secretariat can be entrusted to HK SAR Government of China, and China’s central government may offer required aids in diplomatic policies.

(4) To improve the international environment for China’s international modernization

The international environment for China’s international modernization is one relative to China’s modernization.  To improve the international environment for China’s international modernization is to create an international environment favorable for China’s modernization, and promote the world peace and development.  It’s not only an important goal for China’s international modernization and the PDS, but a strategic point and measure.

First, to improve the world environment for China’s modernization. The world environment for China’s modernization generally refers to the characteristics of world modernization, the international system and the international interaction.  Apparently, according to the current national level and strength, China can hardly change the level of world modernization and the structure of the world system.  The major paths to improving the world environment are: promoting international institutions, international ideas and international interaction structure to develop in a positive way; ensuring the positive development of the relations and attitudes that global international organizations posed toward China, and improving world peace and encouraging democratic international relations.

Second, to improve the regional and surrounding environments for China’s modernization. The regional and surrounding environments for China’s modernization generally refer to the features of the level of national modernization, the system of Asian countries, and the international interaction between Asia and the countries surrounding China.  The paths to improving the regional and surrounding environments include: promoting the regional structure, international institutions and ideas of Asia, as well as the international interaction between Asia and the surrounding countries to develop favorably, and ensuring the positive development of the relations and attitudes that Asian regional organizations and surrounding countries posed toward China

Third, to improve international relations with strategic meanings.  According to PDS, China should strengthen its cooperation with 6 types of countries.  They are: the innovative countries, the resource-abounding countries, the large-population countries, the cultural countries, the friendly countries, and the surrounding countries.  The international relations between China and the 6 types of countries are of strategic meanings.  The improvement of the international relations between China and such countries will greatly improve China’s international environment at the level of nation.

(5) Ten suggestions to enhance the national ability for China’s international modernization.

①   To develop the PDS roadmap and optimize the strategic structure of international modernization.

② To promote the setup of the Asia Association and the cooperation among Asia.

③  To encourage the Asia-Europe Meeting upg