China Modernization Report 2006——A study on the Social modernizationOverview
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Contents Special thanks to the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the
Ministry of Science and Technology of the P.R. of China and the National
Natural Science Foundation of China for their successive supports to this
study! Preface Overview Part
I Study on Social
Modernization Chapter I Historical
facts on social fields’ modernization
Section I The analytical approach of social fields’ modernization I. The time series analytical approach of social modernization II. The cross-sectional analytical approach of social modernization III. The
coordinate analytical approach of social modernization Section II A time series analysis on social fields’ modernization I. A 300-years time series analysis on social life II. A 300-years time series analysis on social structure III. A
time series analysis on social system and concepts Section III A cross-sectional analysis on social fields’ modernization I. The 2001’ cross-section of social modernization II. The seven cross-sections of social life and structure III. The
five cross-sections of social system and concepts Section IV A path analysis on social fields’ modernization I. The historical course of social modernization II. The modernization of three major social fields III. The
affecting factors of social modernization Chapter
II The fundamental
principles of social fields’ modernization Section I Social thoughts and social modernization I. The origin of social modernization thoughts II. Social modernization and social thoughts III.
Social modernization and social change Section II A theoretical analysis on the classical social modernization I. The development course of the classical social modernization theory II. The basic contents of the classical social modernization theory III. The
limitations of the classical social modernization theory Section III A theoretical analysis on general social modernization I. The two foundations of the general social modernization theory II. The basic contents of the general social modernization theory III. The
research methods of the general social modernization theory Section IV The general approach of social modernization I. The approach of the first social modernization II. The approach of the second social modernization III. The
approach of the comprehensive social modernization Chapter III Logical
thoughts on China’s social modernization
Section I The international environment of China’s social modernization I. An overview on the history of global social modernization II. An overview on the status of global social modernization III. An
overview on the prospect of global social modernization Section II The objective conditions for China’s social modernization I. An overview on the history of China’s social modernization II. An overview on the status of China’s social modernization III. An
overview on the prospect of China’s social modernization Section III The strategic choices for China’s social modernization I. The strategic objectives of China’s social modernization II. The canal path of China’s social modernization III. The
road map of China’s social modernization Section IV The strategic key points of China’s social modernization I. The upgrade of the quality of life is of utmost importance II. The realization of social transformation is a burdensome, long-term task III. The upgrade of the literacy and ability of the citizens is of top priority Part
II An Evaluation of
Global and China’s modernization Chapter IV The
50-years history of social modernization
Section I The 50-years history of global social modernization I. The global social modernization index in 2003 II. The
course of global social modernization from 1950 to 2003 Section II The 50 years of China’s social modernization I. The China’s social modernization index in 2003 II. The
course of China’s social modernization from 1950 to 2003 Section III The course of China’s regional social modernization I. The China’s regional social modernization index in 2003 II. The
course of China’s regional social modernization between 1970 and 2003 Chapter V The
global and China’s modernization index in 2003
Section I The global modernization index in 2003 I. The global modernization index in 2003 II. An
appraisal on the global modernization level in 2003 Section II The China’s modernization index in 2003 I. The China’s modernization index between 2003 and 2004 II. An
appraisal on the China’s modernization level between 2003 and 2004 Section III The China’s regional modernization index in 2003 I. The China’s regional modernization index between 2003 and 2004 II. An
appraisal on China’s regional modernization between 2003 and 2004 China Modernization Report 2006——A study on the social modernizationOverview Social modernization is an important field of modernization, and also an integral part of national modernization. Without social modernization, there will be no national modernization. In the past 300 years, social modernization is the theme of human advancement, represents the principal direction of civilization development, and leads to profound changes in social structure and social life of people, and fundamental changes of world patterns. This issue of report specially discusses the facts and principles of global social modernization, and China’s social modernization; and it is a sister report of China Modernization Report 2005—A Study on Economic Modernization. Economic and social modernizations are the two wheels of global modernization. The world is an arena, and modernization is sort of competition. Knowing the world, analyzing the world, understanding the world, and facing the world, all of these are essential for us to win the game. This issue of report adopts a large number of quantitative analyses, theoretical analyses, linear derivations etc.; these analyses are only one kind of viewing angles for studying social modernization, but not an overall perspective on social modernization, because social modernization is non-linear and complicated. Therefore, this study is only a beginning but not an end, in the hope of giving rise to more studies and discussions. I.
The facts and revelations of global social modernization in the past 300
years
The social modernization referred in this report means social fields’ modernization. Social field means one of the six studying fields of human society, which include economic, social, political, cultural, environment and personal (behavior psychological) fields etc., respectively. This issue of report makes a time series and a cross-sectional analyses on the historical course of global social modernization in the past 300 years (between 1700 and 2001); the scopes of which involve 3 subsidiary fields (population and health, study and work, and recreation and welfare) and 4 aspects (social life, social structure, social system and social concept) of social fields, and the contents of which include long-term trends, world frontlines, international gaps, path analyses etc.; the samples of the time series analysis include 15 countries (8 developed countries and 7 developing countries), and the samples of the cross-sectional analysis include 131 countries (the samples of the cross-sectional analysis in 2001 involve 129 countries and 84 social variables, and the other cross-sectional samples are main countries with data available for that year); and summarizes 30 long-term trends, 12 revelations and 8 pieces of historical experience of global social modernization. 1. The 30 long-term trends of global social modernization (1) The 10 long-term trends of the population and health field: both the average life expectancy and the health life expectancy have been prolonged since the 18th century, the natural growth rate of population has changed from rising to dropping, the mortality rates of population and infants have been decreased steadily since the 19th century, there have appeared an increasingly clear trend of population aging since the 19th century, social mobility and divisions have constantly taken place since the 18th century, families have become increasingly miniaturized and diversified since the 19th century, the development of urbanization and suburbanization have come to a balance in the end since the 19th century, public health has gotten steadily improved since the 19th century, family facilities have gotten steadily improved since the 19th century, and public health and average personal medical expenses have kept growing since the 20th century. (2) The 10 long-term trends in the study and work fields: the elementary compulsory education has been popularized since the 19th century; the secondary education and higher education has been popularized since the 20th century; public education and average personal education expenses have kept growing since the 20th century; the labor time have been shortened since the 19th century; the labor force structure has been constantly changed since the 20th century; the occupational structure has constantly been changed since the 20th century; the unemployment rate has been fluctuant since the 19th century; social productivity and income per capita has been increased since the 18th century; and the fairness of income distribution has been changed since the 18th century; and the proportion of absolute poor population has been decreased since the 20th century. (3) The 10 long-term trends in the recreation and welfare fields: the recreational time has been prolonged since the 19th century; entertainments and recreations have been diversified and networked since the 20th century; traffic transports have been constantly developed since the 18th century; the communication technology has been constantly developed since the 19th century; the penetration rates of computers and Internet have been increased since the end of 20th century; information expenses and information expenses per capita have been increased since the 20th century; the development of social security system has experienced four stages (social relief, social insurance, social welfare, and welfare reform) since the 18th century; social security systems have been established in 170 countries and regions in the end of the 20th century; social security and welfare expenses have been increased since the 20th century; criminal and suicidal phenomena have become generally existent and long-term fluctuant since the 20th century. The 30 long-term trends above are only part of objective facts for global social modernization. This issue of report sums up about 64 facts, for instance, constantly changing social life, structure, system and concept, highly unbalanced and asynchronous social transition, enlarging international gap in national income per capita etc. 2. The 12 revelations for global social modernization (1) Social modernization is a relatively expectable course. (2) Social modernization is a global course. (3) Social modernization is a long-term course. (4) Social modernization is a staged course. (5) Social modernization is a progressive course. (6) Social modernization is also an actively adaptive course. (7) Social modernization is a transitional course. (8) Social modernization is a systematic course. (9) Social modernization is an unbalanced course. (10) Social modernization is a complicated course. (11) Social modernization is an internationally competitive course. (12) Social modernization is an irreversible world trend. The process of human social modernization is relatively continuous and irreversible. However, the process of social modernization in a certain country or region may have multiple manifestations, which may be continuous, or discontinuous, and may even have a long term reverse. 3. The 8 pieces of historical experience in global social modernization (1) Social modernization is not only a historical necessity, but also a social choice. For the development of human civilization, social modernization is not only a historical necessity, but also a world trend, representing a direction for the progress of human civilization. For different countries and nationalities, social modernization is not only a social choice, but also a historical responsibility. Any country and nationality, if choosing social modernization, shall have to assume the responsibility and consequence of social modernization. The country and nationality not choosing social modernization will not have to assume the responsible of social modernization, but have to assume the consequence of its choice. This consequence is probably: to stay at the phase of traditional agricultural society or primitive society, and have an increasingly enlarging gap from the frontline of human civilization. (2) Social modernization is not a plain sailing, but an advance wave upon wave. Social modernization does not depend on any individual will, but have to follow objective laws. Advance wave upon wave is an important law. It is decided by three factors: fluctuation of knowledge and technology innovation, fluctuation of economic operations, fluctuation of human thoughts and understandings (confrontation of innovation and tradition) etc. (3) The significant progress of social modernization depends on major innovation and diffusion. On the frontline of human civilization, social modernization is even more a natural evolution, whereas the natural evolution does not come out naturally, but be driven by innovation and diffusion. As a matter of fact, each revolutionary progress of social modernization is the result of major innovation and its diffusion. (4) Social modernization has three sources: inheritance and development, negation and transition, and innovation. The first is a certain inheritance and development of the traditional society, such as technical knowledge, social moral etc.; the next is a certain negation and transition (negation and transition, decomposition and reverse) of the traditional society, such as urbanization and suburbanization etc; and the third is knowledge and institutional innovation, such as industrial revolution and knowledge revolution etc. At different stages of social modernization, the significance of the three major sources is different. (5) Social modernization is not only social progress, but also social positive adaptation. The social progress is mainly represented in the improvement of living quality, social efficiency, national people’s quality, social welfare, social equity etc; and the social positive adaptation is mainly represented in the active change of life style, living & social environment etc. Some social transitions such as informatization and recreationalization etc. are not only social adaptation but also social progress; and some of them such as family miniaturization and population birthrate decrease etc, are only certain adaptive changes. (6) Social modernization has a “late-comer effect.” According to the historical experience in the past 300 years, social modernization is divided into “first-comer” and “late-comer”; in which, the “first-comer countries” of social modernization have “competitive edges”, because they can lead world tides, utilize global resources and institute global rules; while “late-comer countries” have a “late-comer effect”, because they can draw on and use the successful experience and advanced technologies of “first-comer countries”, and reduce faults. However, in the international social competition, the function of “late-comer effect” shall not be overestimated, because the introduction of technology is a certain market behavior, and there are many affecting factors; and “late-comer countries” have to increase international competitiveness and identified power, and avoid dropping into the international trap of “being exploited, manipulated, and misled.” (7) Social modernization does not have the best model, but only have a rational selection and path dependence. The essence of social modernization is the same, but the form is diversified. And the main direction of social modernization is the same, but the path is diversified. For instance, different western developed countries have different education systems, different social security systems, and different public health systems. (8) Social modernization is not once and for all, but relative and changeable. The history of the past 300 year indicates that the world structure of social modernization is largely steady, about 20% of countries are developed countries, and about 80% of countries are late-comer countries; and the international social status of different countries is changeable regularly. For example, in the 43 years between 1960 and 2003, the international status of about 88% of developed countries and over 90% of developing countries had no change, about 12% of developed countries were degraded into developing countries, and about 6% of developing countries were upgraded into developed countries. II.
The fundamental principles of global social modernization
The historical course of global social modernization is about 300 years, but the theoretic study of global social modernization only has a history of over 50 years. In the past over 50 years, the study of social modernization has made great achievements. The main academic thoughts include: classical social modernization theory, urbanization theory, industrial society theory, post-modern society theory, post-industrial society theory, ecological society theory, risk society theory, information society theory, network society theory, knowledge society theory, general social modernization theory etc. 1. The theoretic analysis of social modernization Among the social modernization theories, the classical social modernization theory and the general social modernization theory are comparatively representative. (1) Classical social modernization theory. The classical social modernization theory is built between 1950s and 1960s. The birth of the three monographs of American sociologists—Social System (Parsons 1951), Elapse of Traditional Societies: Middle East’s Modernization (Lerner 1958) and Modernization and Social Structure (Levy 1966) indicates the formation of the classical social modernization theory. The classical social modernization theory sets forth the basic features and rules of global social modernization between 1700s and 1960s. The classical social modernization theory thinks that social modernization is a revolutionary social change since the 18th century, and refers to the transitional course and its profound change from a traditional agricultural society to a modern industrial society; it has 9 basic features, and its main consequence is the formation of classical social modernity, including urbanization, welfarism, mobility, specialization, popularity of elementary compulsory education, mass media etc. (2) General social modernization theory. Since 1970s, the frontline of human society has undergone great changes, and new thoughts have emerged like bamboo shoots after a spring rain. These changes have taken place in each aspect of human society. For example, changes of life style have appeared as from urbanization to suburbanization, and from automation to informatization; changes of social structure have appeared as from an industry-oriented society to a knowledge-oriented society, and from a material production society to a service consumption society; and changes of social concept have appeared as from pursuit of economic growth to pursuit of living quality, and from efficiency first to ecological harmony etc. These changes have fallen beyond the domain of the classical social modernization theory. Prof. He Chuanqi, researcher of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, expanded the “second modernization theory” (general modernization theory) into the social field, and correspondingly proposed the “general social modernization theory” as an extension of the classical social modernization theory. The general social modernization theory systematically sets forth the basic features and rules of global social modernization from the 18th century to the end of 21st century. 2. The features and rules of global social modernization (1) General social modernization is a highly comprehensive concept. First, social modernization is a revolutionary social change in the social field, and has six basic contents: ① two social transitions from an agricultural society to an industrial society, and from an industrial society to a knowledge society; ② constant improvements of social productivity and quality of life; ③ profound changes of life style and concept; ④ great improvements of the citizen’s literacy and health quality; ⑤ fundamental betterments of domestic social welfare and social equity; and ⑥ changes of international social status. Next, social modernization is a long-term, staged historical course. In the 400 years between the 18th century and the 21st century, social modernization comprises the first and the second stages of social modernization and six tides; and there will take place new changes in the 22nd century. Third, social modernization is constant international competition, including the international competition whereby different countries and regions pursue, reach and maintain the world advanced level, and changes of domestic social life, social structure, social system and social concept. Fourth, social modernization has absolute and relative, domestic and international these two viewing angles. If it can be said that the domestic course of social modernization is absolute social modernization, then the course of the international status change of social modernization will be relative social modernization. Social modernization not only includes the domestic social transition in the social field, but also includes the international competition & status change in the social field. Fifth, social modernization is closely related to social development, social progress, social adaptation, social transition, international social competition and other concepts. Their relationship can be expressed in the following two relational expressions: Social modernization = social development × social transition × international social competition (international social status change) Social development = social progress + social positive adaptation + social progress × social positive adaptation Social modernization equals to the intersection of social development, social transition and international social competition, and social development comprises social progress, social adaptation, and intersection of social progress and social adaptation. Social progress means improvements of the quality of life, social efficiency, social welfare, social equity etc.; social positive adaptation means active changes (reasonable improvements) of life style, life concept, social environment etc.; social transition means the transitions from an agricultural society to an industrial society, and from an industrial society to a knowledge society; and international social competition & status change means the international competition & status change of social productivity and living quality, etc. (2) General social modernization has 12 basic features, 10 fundamental principles, 8 basic models, 3 basic driving forces, 3 basic paths, etc. The 12 basic features of general social modernization are: relatively expectable, global, long-term, staged, progressive, positively adaptive, transitional, systematical, unbalanced, complicated, internationally competitive, and an irreversible world trend. The 10 fundamental principles of general social modernization are: asynchronous course, unbalanced distribution, steady structure, changeable status, expectable behavior, selectable path, increased demand, decreased utility, unduplicated state, and converted axis principles. The 8 basic models of general social modernization are: social modernization timetable, social modernization periodic table, social modernization coordinate system, social modernization road map, change model of employment structure, quantitative model, dynamic model, innovation driving model etc. The 3 basic driving forces of general social modernization are: social impulse (social impulse produced by economic growth, technical progress, education development etc.), social pull (social pull generated by cultural changes, political development, globalization etc.), and social pressure (social pressure brought by population and environmental changes etc.). These three kinds of forces not only directly act on social modernization, but also indirectly act on social modernization through interaction. Knowledge innovation and institutional innovation are main power sources of social modernization. The three basic paths of general social modernization: the first social modernization path, the second social modernization path and the comprehensive social modernization path. Of which, the first social modernization path can be explained by the classical social modernization theory; the second social modernization path can be explained by the second social modernization theory; and the comprehensive social modernization path can be explained by the comprehensive social modernization theory. Path selection is path-dependent, and there is no best mode, but only a rational selection. III. A rational analysis on China’s social
modernization China’s social modernization is not only an imperative duty for us, but also a key integral part of global social modernization. The 300-years global social modernization is the 300 years’ growth and prosperity of western societies, and the 300 years’ decline and catch-up of eastern societies. In 1700, on the eve of social modernization starting up, the social development level of China is a little higher than that of the United States; while by 2001, the social modernization level of the United States has obviously exceeded that of China. For example, by 2001, China had not finished its urbanization (about 37%), or popularized its 9-years free compulsory education, while the United States had entered the stage of informatization and knowledgization, the penetration rate of Internet had exceeded 50%, and the penetration rate of university had exceeded 80%. In the 21st century, there is a lot to do and a long way to go for China to build social modernization. The modernization is our unalterable national objective. According to the “three-step” development strategy proposed by Mr. Deng Xiaoping, China will reach the level of moderate developed countries in the world, and largely realize modernization by 2050 or so. To achieve the third-step strategic objective, China must follow the basic law of global modernization, and study to select its own modernization path. We think, to all-roundly realize modernization in the 21st century, the realization of social modernization must be included; to realize social modernization, China has to try hard to catch up with the world advanced level, and take the canal path of social modernization path as a strategic choice. This canal path expects that the level of China’s social modernization will enter the first 40 countries in the world by 2050, and the first 20 countries by the end of the 21st century. 1. The historical revelations of China’s social modernization The historical experience on China’s social modernization needs a special study. Currently there are 8 pieces of experience or revelations worthy of attention. (1) China’s social modernization is sort of late-comer catch-up social modernization. (2) China’s social modernization shall follow the basic law of global social modernization. (3) China’s social modernization needs an open and peaceful international environment. (4) China’s social modernization needs a relatively balanced and harmonious concept of development. (5) China’s social modernization needs a rational and tolerant psychology. (6) China’s social modernization faces up double pressures of the first and the second social modernization. (7) China’s social modernization needs to take key historical opportunities. (8) China’s social modernization will be a century-long project, and we have to make a good ready psychologically. 2. An international comparison of China’s social modernization First, in 2001, China had 8 indicators equivalent to the average level of developed countries in the world. Among the 90 social indicators in 2001, China had 8 indicators equivalent to the average level of developed countries (population growth rate, mortality, total fertility, dependency ratio, enrollment rate of elementary school, youth literacy rate, unemployment rate, and youth unemployment rate), 17 indicators including average life expectancy largely equivalent to the world medium level; and other indicators still with huge international gaps. Next, some indicators of China have comparatively large gaps from those of developed countries. For example, in terms of the average public education expense per capita in 2001, those of Norway, the United States and Sweden were over 50 times that of China; in term of the average public medical expense per capita in 2002, those of high-income countries were averagely 81 times that of China; in terms of the penetration rate of computers in 2002, those of the United States and Sweden were over 20 times that of China; in terms of the penetration rate of Internet, the penetration rate of university and the use efficiency of energy sources in 2002, those of the ten countries including the United States were 3 times to 12 times that of China, respectively. Third, the international gap of China’s social modernization is a little smaller than that of its economic modernization. In terms of the social level comprehensive year gap calculated according to urbanization, average life expectancy, adult literacy rate, social productivity and other indicators, there was an over-80-years’ gap between China and England, the United States, Germany, Sweden and France these five countries in 2001. And in terms of the economic level comprehensive year gap calculated according to per capita GDP (PPP), proportion of agricultural labor force, proportion of agricultural value added, and other indicators in the China Modernization Report 2005, there was an over-100-years’ gap between China and the 7 countries including the United States in 2001. 3. The opportunities and challenges of China’s social modernization In the 21st century, the opportunities and challenges of China’s social modernization not only come from inside the country, but also come from international environments. There are 10 challenges by and large: (1) Constantly improve the national living quality, and quicken up the transition from a ternary society (agricultural, industrial and knowledge) to a knowledge society. (2) Fully take advantage of the “late-comer effect” and the international peaceful environment and try hard to catch up with the world advanced level. (3) Advance urbanization and transfer of rural population, and step onto a new road of urbanization. (4) Popularize the 12-years free compulsory education and all-roundly improving the labor force quality. (5) Build a national public medical system and improve the national health level. (6) Build a general social welfare system, and make social welfare accessible to everyone. (7) Build a social credit management system, and facilitate reasonable flows of population. (8) Eliminate absolute poverty, and encourage social equity. (9) Eliminate knowledge information gaps, and make information networks accessible to everyone. (10) Promote four harmonious developments, and build an efficient and harmonious society. 4. The road map of China’s social modernization As for the path selection of China’s social modernization in the 21st century, different scholars may have different studying angles, and may also arrive at differential opinions. We think that the canal path and the road map of China’s social modernization can be taken as a plan for reference. The road map of China’s social modernization is an integration of the strategic objective and the canal path of China’s social modernization. Its basic thought is: to follow the comprehensive social modernization theory, coordinate in advancing of the first and the second social modernization, quicken up the transition from an agricultural society to an industrial society and knowledge society, and try hard to catch up with the second social modernization level of developed countries; start up the five strategies including new-type urbanization before 2010; complete urbanization and popularization of the 9-years free compulsory education by 2020; largely complete social informatization, popularize the 12-years free compulsory education, eliminate absolute poverty, build a harmonious and efficient new-type welfare country by 2030; largely popularize the higher education, eliminate knowledge and information gaps by 2040; reach the world moderate developed countries level, and largely realize social modernization by 2050; and attain the world advanced level and all-roundly realize social modernization by the end of 21st century. The road map of China’s social modernization includes the following main contents: the canal path (path selection), strategic objectives (overall objectives and staged objectives), basic tasks (overall task and staged task), monitoring indicators, social life monitoring, and social structure monitoring of China’s social modernization; and the main strategic measure of the implementation road map, such as the country‘s antipoverty strategy, social welfarism strategy, new-type urbanization strategy, social informatization strategy, social knowledgization strategy etc. (1) The
canal path of China’s social modernization: follow the comprehensive
social modernization theory, coordinate in advancing the first and the
second social modernization, coordinate in advancing new-type
urbanization, welfarism, mobility, informatization, knowledgization and
greening, quicken up the transition towards the second social
modernization and knowledge society, try hard to catch up with the second
social modernization level of developed countries; reach the world
moderate developed level of social modernization by 2050, and reach the
world developed level of social modernization and become an all-round
modernized country by the end of the 21st century. (2) The quantitative objectives of China’s social modernization: in the first 50 years of the 21st century, reach the world moderate level of social modernization, all-roundly complete the first social modernization, and have the social modernization level enter the first 40 countries in the world (calculated according to quantitative assessments on social modernization); and in the last 50 years of the 21st century, reach the world advanced level of social modernization, all-roundly complete the second social modernization, and have the social modernization level enter the first 20 countries in the world. (3) The quantitative tasks of China’s social modernization: in the 21st century, we have to fulfill the following three basic tasks. The first basic task: the international level of China’s social modernization shall go up three steps. The international level of China’s social modernization shall upgrade from the less-developed level onto the elementary developed level before 2020, the moderate developed level before 2050, and the developed level before 2100. The second basic task: the historical course of China’s social modernization shall advance into six periods. The historical course of China’s social modernization will enter the mature period from the developing period of the first social modernization in 2020, the transition period of the first social modernization before 2030, and enter the start-up period of the second social modernization in 2030, the developing period of the second social modernization in 2050, the mature period of the second social modernization in 2080, and the transition period of the second social modernization in 2100. The third basic task: raise the world ranking of China’s social modernization level by 60 positions, and gradually reduce the comprehensive year gap between Chinese society and those of major developed countries down to zero in the end. In the 21st century, reduce the year gap between Chinese society and those of major developed countries down to 60 years by 2020, 40 years by 2050, 10 years by the end of the 21st century, and have the world ranking of China’s social modernization level enter the world advanced level by the end of the 21st century. (4) The monitoring indicators of China’s social modernization: the monitoring indicators are divided into two classes including social life and structure monitoring, 6 groups, and 36 indicators. Of which, social life monitoring includes living quality, life conditions and life environment these 3 groups of indicators, and social structure monitoring includes social transition, social security and social harmony these three groups of indicators; and each group of indicators include 6 specific indicators, respectively. (5) The social life monitoring of China’s social modernization: 18 indicators for living quality, life conditions and life environments, overall objectives for the first 50 years of the 21st century, staged objectives (2010—2020—2030—2040—2050) and tasks. (6) The social structure monitoring of China’s social modernization: 18 indicators for social transition, social security and social harmony, overall objectives for the first 50 years of the 21st century, staged objectives (2010—2020—2030—2040—2050) and tasks. 5. The strategic key points and 10 proposals for China’s social modernization The first 50 years of the 21st century is a critical period of China’s social modernization, and it is necessary to coordinate in advancing social and economic modernization. China’s social modernization shall focus on the modernization of social life and social structure, and center on modernization of living quality; and at the same time, advance social transition, and improve citizen’s literacy and health quality. The living quality, social transition, literacy and health quality of citizens are the three strategic key points. To accelerate China’s social modernization building, we offer 10 proposals for discussion. (1) Studying and implementing the road map of China’s social modernization and regional social modernization. (2) Constantly drive the two transitions of social development models, improve the quality of life, and build a credit management society. (3) Continue advancing the country’s antipoverty strategy, and build a country without “absolute poverty” (in accordance with the UN standard). (4) Implement a social welfarism strategy, establish a sound social security system, and build a harmonious, efficient new-type welfare country. (5) Implement a new-type urbanization strategy, realize the first and the second transitions of population space structure, and build a balanced society of urban and rural. (6) Implement a social informatization strategy, realize the first and the second transitions of life style, and build an information society. (7) Implement a social knowledgization strategy, realize the first and the second transitions of labor structure, and build a knowledge society. (8) Popularize the free compulsory education, gradually popularize the higher education, and build a strong human resource country. (9) Advance health system modernization, increase public health inputs, and build a healthy, long living country. (10) Eliminate information gaps, advocate for whole-life learning, and build a learning society. If all the tasks above are all-roundly fulfilled, Chinese society will become a moderate developed society by 2050. Its average life expectancy will exceed 80 years old; the penetration rate of university, and the rate of urbanization and informatization will exceed 80%; the coverage rate of pension insurance, medical insurance and unemployment insurance will reach 100%; the free and rational flows of people will be realized, and the rate of tourist going abroad will exceed 50%; the minimum month wage will exceed US$1,300 (at the price of 2002), and the proportions of absolute poverty (incidence of international high poverty and medium poverty) and child labor will be reduced down to zero. IV.
The 50 years of social modernization
1. The 50 years of global social modernization (1) The global social modernization level in 2003. There were about 52 countries having completed or almost realized the first social modernization in 2003, accounting for about 40% of the total number of countries (131 countries); among them, there were 31 countries having completed the first social modernization, accounting for about 24% of the total number of countries; and 23 countries having entered the second social modernization, accounting for about 18% of the total number of countries. In 2003, the first ten countries in the world ranking of the second social modernization index were Norway, Sweden, United States, Denmark, England, Finland, Japan, Netherlands, Swiss and Australia. According to the grouping of the second social modernization index, there are 20 countries including Norway that belong to social developed countries, 33 countries including Spain that belong to social moderate developed countries, 17 countries including Thailand that belong to social elementary developed countries, and 61 countries including China that belong to social less-developed countries. According to a comprehensive judgment on signal indicators of social modernization (urbanization, proportion of agricultural labor force, proportion of material industrial labor force, and penetration rate of university), there are 8 countries including Norway that enter the developing period of second social modernization, 15 countries including France that enter the start-up period of the second social modernization; and 17 countries including Brazil that enter the transition period of the first social modernization, 31 countries including Poland that enter the mature period of the first social modernization, 28 countries including China that enter the developing period of the first social modernization, 13 countries including India that enter the start-up period of the first social modernization, 10 countries including Chad that are still traditional agricultural societies, and about hundreds of indigenous nationalities are still primitive societies. (2) Main features of global social modernization in the past 53 years. The past 53 years was a “golden age” for global social modernization. During this period, 31 countries have successively completed the first social modernization, and 23 countries have successively entered the second social modernization; some countries have not completed the first social modernization, but have introduced the second social modernization; some countries are still traditional agricultural societies; and hundreds of native nationalities and 520 native inhabitants are (or were) still living on hunting and gathering. During the period between 1950 and 2003, 114 countries had social status changes, 58 upgraded and 56 degraded. During the period between 1960 and 2003, there were 20 countries having their social modernization status upgraded, and 20 countries degraded. If calculated according to the annual average growth rate between 1980 and 2003, it will averagely take 81 years for low-income countries, or 13 years for the world, to complete the first social modernization. 2. The 50 years of China’s social modernization (1) China’s social modernization level in 2003. China belonged to social less-developed countries, and had an obvious gap from the world advanced level in terms of social level in 2003. China’s first social modernization index was 73 in 2003, ranking the 54th among the 109 countries in the world; its second social modernization index was 28, ranking the 59th; its comprehensive social modernization index was 25, ranking the 60th. In 2003, China entered the developing period of the first social modernization, just as the interim period of urbanization; China’s social modernization level was lower than the world average level and the average level of medium-income countries. If calculated according to the annual growth rate of the first social modernization index between 1980 and 2003, it will take about 15 years for China to complete the first social modernization. (2) Main features of China’s social modernization in the past 53 years. During the period between 1950 and 2003, China’s first social modernization index increased from 11 to 73, up 62 in the 53 years; its world ranking rose from the 86th in 1960 to the 54th in 2003, up 32; during the period of social modernization, it entered the developing period of the first social modernization from the traditional agricultural society; China’s average life expectancy increased from 41 years to 71 years old, up 30 years old; and the urbanization rate increased from 13% to 39%, up 26 percent. In most time of the past 50 years, China’s social modernization is faster than its economic modernization. During the period between 1950 and 2002, China’s first social modernization index was 4 to 50 higher than its first economic modernization index, and its comprehensive social modernization index was 7 to 14 higher than its comprehensive economic modernization index. However, during the period between 1990 and 2000, China’s comprehensive social modernization index had a drop, and the relative level of its social modernization appeared some fluctuations. (3) China’s regional social modernization level. In 2003, China’s Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan completed the first social modernization; the first social modernization index of Beijing, Tianjin, and Shanghai exceeded 90%, and largely realized the first social modernization; and Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and Beijing had already entered the second social modernization. If Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan are excluded from the rankings, the first ten regions of the first social modernization index in 2003 will be: Guangdong, Zhejiang, Liaoning, Jiangsu, Fujian, Shanxi, Heilongjiang, Jilin, Inner Mongolia, and Ningxia, and the first ten regions of the second social modernization index will be: Zhejiang, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Liaoning, Fujian, Heilongjiang, Jilin, Shandong, Ningxia, and Hubei. V.
The global modernization index in 2003
This issue of report also completed a modernization assessment on 131 countries in the world and 34 regions of China in 2003. There were 24 countries had entered the second modernization in 2003, accounting for about 18% of the total number of sampling countries; and 68 countries had almost completed or largely realized the first modernization, accounting for 52% of the total number of sampling countries. In 2003, China belonged to the world elementary developed countries level, and the extent of realization of the first modernization was 82%, ranking the 60th among the 108 countries in the world. By 2004, the extent of realization of China’s first modernization had reached 83%. If Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan are excluded from the rankings, the first 10 regions in terms of the extent of realization of the first modernization in 2004 will be: Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Liaoning, Guangdong, Shandong, Fujian, Heilongjiang, Hubei, Jilin and Chongqing. In the 21st century, we shall be faced with major opportunities for global social modernization transition and new technology revolution. With our common efforts, we shall be likely seize the opportunities, try hard to catch up, reach the world moderate level and the advanced level successively, and realize the grand renaissance of the China. Study Task Team on China’s Modernization Strategy China Center For Modernization Research, CAS October 26, 2005
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